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ACTION STAYS NORTH: Sure looks like this time our friends in Tennessee and Kentucky will have the severe weather problems this evening; the upper ridge continues to strengthen with rising heights, and it looks like much of Alabama will be hot and dry through Friday. Of course, you know the disclaimer, there is always some risk of a shower or storm somewhere on a hot summer afternoon in our state, but warm air aloft should keep a lid on most of the developing showers and storms for the rest of the week.
Hot weather will be the headline with highs mostly in the mid 90s through Friday. We note some of the guidance is trying to suggest upper 90s, but with excellent soil moisture, that looks unlikely. Even today afternoon temperatures are running about 3 to 4 degrees below guidance. This is the advantage of getting lots of rain during the last few weeks and months.
THE WEEKEND: The upper ridge breaks down over the weekend, and with an approaching surface front, we will bring back the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday with highs back in the 88 to 91 degree range, which is where we should be time time of the year. No wash-out, but we will have to dodge a few storms over the weekend.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The good news is that we don’t see any sign of a nasty, runaway 5940 meter heat bubble (at 500 mb)… looks like average temperatures and rain for the last week of June and into early July. The tropics remain quiet, and even the GFS is not showing any tropical trouble for the next 15 days.
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