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HEATING UP: Statistical guidance from computer models are showing highs in the 95 to 98 degree range here through Friday; those numbers are a little too hot due to the plentiful soil moisture we have in place; I will keep highs around 95 each day, but much of North Alabama will probably hover around 92 or 93 during the peak of the daytime heating process. But, remember the dewpoints will remain high, and the heat index will hover around 100 (how it feels to us due to the combined effect of temperature and humidity). While there is always some risk of a small pop-up shower or storm on hot summer afternoon, a strong upper ridge should keep most of Alabama dry for the rest of the week. The exception could be the northeast corner of the state, where the could catch the tail end of thunderstorm areas moving through Tennessee down into Georgia. Jackson and DeKalb counties are in the SPC slight severe weather risk area for today.
THE WEEKEND: The 00z GFS keeps the upper ridge in place over the weekend, and most of the state dry. Let’s see the 12Z run before we make any changes to our forecast; for now we have a chance of scattered showers and storms in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. Often a big upper ridge is slow in breaking down during the summer, and that GFS run might be on to the right idea. The ridge does retrograde next week, and will be centered over Texas by the middle of the week, and an upper trough over the eastern U.S. should mean decreasing heat levels and increasing chances of scattered showers and storms.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the rest of the week. Still waiting on our first named storm of 2009, which will be Ana.
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