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The high at the Birmingham airport and the Oxford airport yesterday was 94 while Tuscaloosa hit 96, so please get someone to turn down the thermostat a notch or two! And that is likely to occur toward the end of next week as the upper ridge retrogrades a bit putting Alabama back under the east side of the ridge. But with that northwesterly flow comes the possibility that we’ll see additional mesoscale convective complexes or MCCs. If that should happen as is being forecast, then I will definitely submit 2009 as the year of the derecho in Central Alabama.
But for the next couple of days look for highs to stay around the middle 90s or so, with some spots inching up a tad as the soil moisture continues to shrink. I think the soil moisture is the primary reason that MOS guidance has been a few degrees too warm over the last several days, but that element will be neutralized as we continue to see plenty of sunshine drying the ground.
By the latter part of the week, the ridge will inch westward bringing Alabama under a northwesterly flow which will change our weather in two ways. It should cut the temperature just a bit with highs dropping back into a range of 89 to 93. It will also open the way for thunderstorm clusters to form in the Central Plains states and dive in across the Southeast bringing rain and the potential for severe weather. Now keep in mind that this is several days out, so a lot can happen between now and then. Outside of the severe weather threat, some rain would be welcome along with the cooling effects it might have.
The GFS is also hinting at a bit of action in the southwestern Gulf, but it does not paint a strong system. Not going to do much speculation on that just yet. But the long range looks relatively summer-like with nothing unusual.
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I’m on my 19th year as meteorologist for City Stages. This is shaping up to be one of the driest and warmest events ever in the history of the festival. The lineup is great, too, and I always love the variety that City Stages brings. Maybe, if the weather continues to hold, this will be a year that I will get to see several acts. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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