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A familiar theme this morning… we are in a state with drought conditions that worsen by the day, and we are spending most of our time looking for any feature that will bring some rain in here. It still looks like the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain east of Alabama today, over parts of Georgia and the Carolinas, underneath the upper trough that has been parked over the Atlantic coast this week. If any showers do pop up over our state later today or tonight, the best chance will be over the far eastern counties, like the past several days.
The NAM, and to a lesser degree, the GFS, both show a little better chance of a shower or storm tomorrow afternoon thanks to an impulse coming down the back side of the trough. We will mention widely scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon.
THE WEEKEND: At this point it looks like most all of Alabama will be dry and hot on Saturday and Sunday. Very little moisture, no upper forcing. I figure we will reach the mid 90s both days; model temperature guidance still looks too low to me. It just doesn’t understand the very dry soil and how it can impact afternoon highs.
NEXT WEEK: We are still forecasting an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity late Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to a pretty good looking cold front coming our way supported by a strong upper trough. That seems to be our best bet for numerous showers and storms over the next 15 days…
LONG RANGE: Nothing exciting showing up beyond the middle of next week, although the Gulf and the Caribbean are beginning to look a little nervous at the end of the month. The water is very warm down there, I would not be shocked to see the tropics come alive at some point in late June or early July.
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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon…
