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Interesting to note that SPC has now included Northeast Alabama in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and tonight. This is due to the possibility of another batch of strong storms forming on the next impulse coming down the back side of the Atlantic coast upper trough. We have had showers and storms across East Alabama for the past three nights; no reason to back away from that idea again tonight. The slight risk is for areas along and east of a line from Huntsville to Birmingham to Phenix City. Just remember, any storms that do form in that region will be widely scattered, and many neighborhoods will remain dry. But, the storms that do form could produce hail and strong winds.
We will mention a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms again tomorrow, mostly for the eastern half of the state, but the upper trough lifts out and weakens over the weekend, and our weather looks simply hot and dry on Saturday and Sunday with ample sunshine and afternoon highs in the mid 90s.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues the idea of increased shower and thunderstorm activity by Tuesday night and Wednesday of next week. The 06Z run is actually a little faster, but we won’t be able to really resolve the details until we get a little closer. But, the idea of a strong upper trough from Milwaukee to New Orleans looks pretty good, and the associated surface cold front should help to kick off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Drier air returns to North Alabama by Wednesday night and Thursday.
TROPICS: Still nothing exciting out there right now, but I would not be surprised if the tropics started to bloom late this month and into July. The water in the Gulf and Caribbean is very, very warm; we don’t see any signs of a major Sahara Dust Layer (dry air coming from Africa that can choke off developing tropical systems), and we have flipped from an El Nino cycle to a weak La Nina cycle, so the upper air winds should be relatively favorable.
I am posting this early today; Summer Quest at Hunter Street Baptist continues and in order to get everything done, my schedule is a little tighter than usual. The schedule next week will also be a little different as I will be on the road in Washington, DC… Brian Peters will be handling the Weather Xtreme video and blog discussions in my absence.
J.B. Elliott has his eyes glued to the radar screen, and if storms fire up over Northeast Alabama he will have the updates here. My next video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
