An area of showers and storms over southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois is turning southeast and south tonight.
The storms are about 180 nautical miles north northwest of the Northwest corner of Alabama. Given a 30 knot south southeastward movement, the activity could reach the state by 4 a.m. or so. They could reach the Birmingham area during the morning hours. It’s hard to say just what they will do, but we will be monitoring them.
The most powerful storms to our northwest are about to enter northeastern Arkansas. This complex has had a tornado warning on it in the last 15 minutes. These storms will reach the Memphis area around 2 a.m. I think they will stay mostly to the west of Alabama given the mid-level wind trajectories.
The SPC has outlooked the northern third of Alabama roughly north of Birmingham for a slight risk of severe weather on Sunday. Such storm complexes will be the source of the potential severe threat. Damaging winds will pose the main problem.
