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Weren’t those scattered showers yesterday great? Unfortunately, as is the nature of showers, not everyone got rain. I was among some of the fortunate folks with a third of an inch. I’m not at home this weekend so I haven’t seen my grass, but I expect to get a big thank you from it when I see it next. I am in town, though, but I’m downtown staying at the Tutweiler while I perform a task I’ve been doing since the early 90s – weather support to the world-class Birmingham festival – City Stages. Gets pretty exciting at times like it did yesterday when we had lightning occurring so close. Looking dry today and Sunday so be sure to take in some of the great music lineups if you can.
The upper trough over the mid-Atlantic coast which has been providing us with some extra lift to enhance our shower chances will be edging off into the Atlantic today and Sunday. This should result in a corresponding reduction in showers today. And as the ridge builds over the area on Sunday, I don’t expect to see any showers in Central Alabama. Temperatures will be warm with the lower 90s forecast.
Monday we may see isolated thunderstorms again, but the big weather news is the approach of an upper trough on Tuesday and Wednesday that I expect to bring some of the best rain possibilities of recent weeks. The GFS has varied in the strength of the system and the latest run seems to be a bit weaker. However, with lots of low level moisture, I think a weak trough is all we need to get a good soaking. Because the rain will come in shower form, we won’t all get the same amount of rain. General values of one half to one inch look pretty realistic in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. This won’t be a drought buster since our rainfall deficit for 2007 is over 15 inches. But it should help to put some moisture back into the soil.
Besides the rain which is on nearly everyone’s mind, we’ll see temperatures a bit cooler, too, due to the overall cloudiness.
The upper air pattern remains favorable for afternoon showers through the end of the week with a broad weakness in the flow pattern. Temperatures will climb back toward 90 degrees again.
Prospects for a significant rainfall event still seem slim. The GFS keeps a weakness in the upper pattern for several days so we should see at least scattered showers in the longer term. But toward the end of June the GFS builds a big ridge back over the Southeast which will put an end to even a few showers.
Our drought remains in the “exceptional” category. We are the only location in the country in such a dire condition.
I hope that you have a great weekend. Happy Father’s Day tomorrow. God bless.
-Brian-
