Published on: July 15, 2009 at 3:25 PM

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You know, we don’t often get to talk about “weather changes ahead” in July, but sure looks like it will happen in coming days.

RIGHT NOW: Widely scattered showers and storms continue across the state this afternoon; those will fade once the sun goes down later. Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 90s, but some spots, especially where showers have formed, are in the 80s.

TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: We will maintain a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in our forecast tomorrow and Friday as the heat ridges retreats to the west, and a deep upper trough forms over the eastern U.S. Average rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected, and considering the convective type of rain, some spots will get more, much like the event this past Sunday and Monday. A few strong storms are likely, but major severe weather problems aren’t expected. The main issue will be heavy rain and fierce cloud to ground lightning. The NAM is printing 1.03″ for Birmingham through the event, while the GFS is at 1.26″.

REFRESHING WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS confirms our thinking for the weekend, cooler and drier air rolls in here after midnight Friday night, setting the stage for a really delightful weekend for mid-summer. Highs in the mid 80s, low humidity, and cool nights. The GFS is suggesting lows around 60 degrees both Sunday and Monday morning, which means many places will drop into the 50s, not far from record low territory for this time of the year. I say bring it on!

NEXT WEEK: Dry air stays in place for the first half of the week, and for now the weather looks dry Monday through Wednesday. A few scattered showers could show up by Thursday and Friday as moist air begins to return.

TROPICS: We have Delores and Carlos out in the Pacific, but the Atlantic remains very quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the rest of the week.

AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms will be a good bet at times tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday for the area from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Not a total wash-out, but only about 2 to 4 hours of sun each day. Dry air arrives Saturday night, and the weather should be mostly sunny along the Gulf Coast Sunday and into early next week.

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I had a great time today seeing the kids at Guiding Light Church… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…