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The humidity will remain low for one more day before moisture levels begin to rise. Of course, as the moisture begins to rise it will give us an increasing chance for showers. So scattered showers will be back in the picture by Sunday. But today and Saturday should be dry – just HOT.
Tropics remain quiet although there are a couple of areas of cloudiness and disturbed weather. One was located off the Florida east coast and another in the western Caribbean, however, neither of these areas posed any threat of tropical storm formation.
Our weather will remain hot and dry through much of the weekend, but on Sunday there should be enough moisture that we could see the development of a few scattered showers. Our chances for scattered showers improve as we get into next week with deeper moisture and the presence of a broad area of weak low pressure in the upper atmosphere. That weakness as shown in the 500 millibar pattern should aid afternoon heating and allow scattered showers. While I expect the showers to be scattered, the presence of that weakness means there might be a bit more areal coverage of the storms. Still, not everyone will get rain.
The presence of the weakness aloft plus a weak northerly or northwesterly flow still means we need to keep a sharp eye on the development of those large clusters of storms to the northwest of us. We continue to see these like last night but they have not made the long trek southward that we sometimes see. I think I want rain so much I’m letting wishful thinking get in the way.
By the end of next week, the GFS is suggesting a cold front will be approaching the Tennessee Valley from the north, but it may struggle to get close enough to have a good influence on our weather.
Trolling into voodoo land, and the GFS goes bonkers around the third of July. It shows a massive closed low over northern Indiana. While I love the look of the pattern, I just have a hard time believing that we’ll see something that strong in July. Such a pattern would bring excellent rain chances to the Southeast, and I’d love that. But my confidence in such a big chance in the look of the forecast is very, very low. The GFS looks a lot more reasonable around July 7th with the main westerlies well to the north and a surface high over Alabama.
Going to enjoy a cool day on the mountain today as my wife and I enjoy Cheaha State Park. These cool mornings have probably done a number on the pool, so don’t know if I have enough guts to go for a dip. I’ll try to report on that tomorrow. We had a marvelous sunset from Bald Rock last night. I hope you have a great Friday and a good weekend. The next Weather Xtreme Video should be posted by 9 am tomorrow.
-Brian-
