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The thunderstorm cluster that moved through portions of Tennessee last evening and the MCS moving through northern Mississippi and eastern Arkansas this morning have laid down boundaries across the northern half of Alabama that are expected to be the focus for thunderstorm development today and tonight. Boundaries, I might add, that are sometimes difficult to locate. It does appear now that we will not have one of those clusters to deal with directly, however, dealing with the boundaries from the ones that did occur will make the forecast a challenge today.
With additional clouds, I think we’ll see the high clipped a couple of degrees but still likely to get into the 90 to 92 range. Not everyone will get wet, either, due to the showery nature of the rain. And the SPC has outlooked an area for a slight risk of severe weather generally south of I-20 today and this evening with the possibility of storms producing damaging wind and perhaps marginally severe hail.
Because the trough axis has moved enough east along with the ridge to our west edging eastward, the ridge is expected to become firmly established over the Southeast by Friday. Since there is not an air mass change, we’ll be getting into a summertime pattern with hot, humid days and daily chances for thunderstorms. I think the storms will be isolated, so few of us are likely to get any rain well into next week as the pattern becomes somewhat static.
Tropics remain quiet.
In the longer range, the GFS holds onto the ridge well into the middle of August. By August 20th, a strong trough begins to develop which could bring the trough position back to the eastern US. But voodoo country seems to always change, so we can just hope that happens.
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Off to Chicago today for a visit with my daughter. Unfortunately, it looks like Chicago will be hot for my stay as I play the tourist for a few days. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so tomorrow morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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