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The ridge at the surface and aloft will remain the dominating pattern for Central Alabama through about the middle of the week. By Wednesday, however, a strong short wave moving through the main westerlies is expected to suppress the upper ridge bringing us a really good chance at widespread showers. A piece of that short wave is forecast to become cut off from the main westerlies over the Mid-South in the vicinity of Memphis and Paducah. This should continue to bring scattered showers to a good portion of the Southeast US.
Temperatures will not change a great deal over the next few days with lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s, though some spots could nudge into the middle 90s. More clouds and more widespread rain chances on Wednesday will hold the temperatures in check around 90. Rainfall amounts could potentially reach the 1 to 2 inch range in some places, but the showery nature of the anticipated precipitation means that some spots could get missed altogether.
Main severe weather threat today continues from western New York through the Great Lakes to eastern section of Kansas and Nebraska plus along the Front Range of Colorado. And there is a vigorous wave moving off the African coast that may be the source of our first tropical system of the 2009 season. There is some potential for this wave to become a depression in the next 48 hours.
Long range GFS projections keep the upper ridge at bay with weak troughiness over the eastern half of the country. By August 24th there is an indication of a tropical system approaching the Southeast US coastline, but we’ll have to wait and see how that tropical wave develops and moves before buying into this solution.
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Unless James Spann went AWOL while enjoying his vacation, he should be back first thing Monday morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. I hope you have a great Sunday and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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