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CLOSE CALL FOR THE UPPER EAST COAST: The eyes of the weather world will be watching Tropical Storm Danny with interest; while most of the dynamic model guidance keeps the center of the system just offshore, one or two models, including the GFS, bring it into the New England coast by Saturday. One way or another, the weather along the immediate coast from Chesapeake Bay north to Maine will be wet and windy at times Friday and over the weekend with very rough surf. The heaviest rain will be on the immediate coast, where some flooding issues will be possible. Danny has a chance to become a minimal hurricane during the next 48 hours, but a number of the intensity models keep the system as a tropical storm. It will be interesting to watch form a distance.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Looks like we will need to mention some risk of scattered showers and storms on a daily basis through the weekend. Model consistency has not been very good with placement of the deepest moisture and lift, but we will be in a rather moist environment through most of the weekend. Another interesting feature is the ULL (upper level low) to the west, over Louisiana… that is drifting south toward the Gulf of Mexico; we will keep an eye on that for any interesting developments.
The deepest moisture will be over the eastern half of the state, so it is likely places like Anniston and Gadsden will have more rain than Tuscaloosa and Fayette through Sunday. And, again, we stress we are only talking about scattered showers and storms, not a wash-out kind of situation. The chance of any one high school football stadium seeing a shower Friday night is about one in three. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow and Thursday, with mid 80s over the weekend. Each day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with the best chance of showers coming during the afternoon and evening hours.
NEXT WEEK: Another refreshing airmass is poised to move into Alabama late in the weekend. The 12Z GFS is a little slower with the front, but Monday and Tuesday of next week still look great, with sunny days, clear nights, cool mornings, and low humidity. A great chance we visit the 50s Monday and Tuesday; the 12Z GFS is printing 58 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Tuesday, which also happens to be the first day of September, and also the first day of meteorological fall.
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