Muggy Days; Scattered Storms

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RIGHT NOW: Strong thunderstorms continue to rumble across Alabama… in some cases approaching severe limits. Some of the strongest storms were over the eastern and southern part of the Birmingham metro area, over Clay County, and over the northern part of Smith Lake. Due to the slow movement of the storms, some localized flooding is likely, and all of the storms are featuring lots of lightning. The will fade away once the sun goes down later this evening.

TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: I really don’t expect much weather change for the next two days; the afternoon storms will just form in different places. Like today, they will be slow movers that produce very heavy rain, but many communities will be dry due to the scattered nature of the storms. High temperatures will remain in the mid 80s… MOS guidance remains too warm, generally speaking.

THE WEEKEND: The weather on Saturday stays the same; warm and muggy with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Then, we expect an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday with increasing moisture from the southwest. The GFS continues the idea of a surface low forming in the western Gulf of Mexico, with a northeast motion. That, of course, will have to be monitored for potential backyard tropical development, but one way or another it sure has the potential to bring lots of rain to Alabama late in the weekend and early next week. We will maintain a good chance of showers and storms Monday, with a trend toward drier conditions by mid-week on Wednesday.

FOCUS ON FRED: Hurricane Fred is now a category three storm in the far East Atlantic, but it will drift northward harmlessly in coming days, with a weakening trend this weekend as the system encounters cooler water. It will basically stay out in the middle of nowhere, and is no threat to land.

VOODOO LAND: You can watch the Weather Xtreme video for the long range ideas, but the 12Z GFS shows no sign of any major shot of cold air into Alabama through the end of September. But, other runs have shown a higher amplitude pattern, so confidence in any specific solution is low for now.

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I had a wonderful time today visiting with the retirees of ACIPCO (American Cast Iron Pipe Company)… thanks for allowing me to spend some time with you out at the plant. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!