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TROPICAL DAYS: Be sure and scroll down for all of the pictures from yesterday… some great work from our Army of viewers and readers. And, see the comments on the Chilton County tornado below as well. Concerning our weather in coming days, the parade of showers and storms will continue pretty much unabated through the weekend. A stacked low, surface and aloft, continues to spin away west of the state, and we remain in very humid air with the daily chance of occasional showers and thunderstorms. The rain won’t be continuous, but showers could come at any time.
A number of Alabama communities have experienced over two inches of rain this week, and you can see in the Weather Xtreme video that the guys at HPC are forecasting an additional 3 to 4 inches of rain through Monday. Widespread flooding isn’t expected, but flash flood warnings are likely for localized areas. We had significant flooding last night in Northwest Alabama, in places like Florence and Haleyville.
Concerning severe weather, it is not likely on a widespread basis, but a warning or two could be required since we still have some degree of helicity thanks to the low off to the west.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Showers are possible at high school games across Alabama tonight and tomorrow night, so rain gear will be in order. Temperatures will be generally in the mid to upper 70s for the games. Saturday, Alabama will host North Texas at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (11:30 a.m. kickoff). Showers and storms are likely during the game, with temperatures generally around 80 degrees. Auburn hosts West Virginia at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday night (6:45 p.m. kickoff)… showers are possible during the game with temperatures in the 75 to 79 degree range. UAB is at Troy Saturday afternoon (1:30 p.m. kickoff); showers or storms are likely during the game with temperatures in the low 80s at kickoff. The bottom line is that you will need to be ready for some rain at all stadiums, but it won’t rain at all of them.
MODEL MADNESS NEXT WEEK: Uh oh. The GFS is backing down on the idea of cooler and drier air invading Alabama next week (and the idea of severe weather here on Tuesday). Instead of a phased upper trough over the eastern half of the nation, it now develops the trough over Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S., and the southern part is an upper low that is now showing up over the Texas Panhandle. Unfortunately, the ECMWF is in total agreement. So, on the next forecast cycle we will need to make some wholesale changes; looks like we could very well stay in very muggy air through all of next week with the daily risk of showers and storms. That first good front of the fall season will make it one day, but hopes are fading that it comes next week.
TROPICS: All remains very quiet across the Atlantic basin. Almost spooky for mid-September.
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J.B. and I will hit the road this morning for Starkville and the annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State University. I will write a discussion here this afternoon, but I won’t be able to produce another Weather Xtreme video until tomorrow morning since we will be in sessions through the day. Today is mainly about broadcast meteorology; tomorrow will be packed with great presentations; I will post some notes along the way. And, of course, some pictures of the amazing eat-a-thon that goes on at Pap’s Place and the Little Dooey…
