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In a word, okay, three words, wet, wet, wet! Only two years ago we were complaining about dry weather and the drought and now it seems that complaints about the wet are certainly valid. Overnight a very large area of rain moved northeastward across the state. I recorded 1.50 inches in my gauge between midnight and 6 am. The bulk of the rain was located over the eastern sections this morning generally east of I-65. West of I-65 some patches of light rain continued, but there was little heavy rain with the exception of the area from southwest of Selma to just west of Clanton.
Much of Central Alabama will dry out this morning as the showers and rain march steadily northeastward. We might even see a few peeks at the sun during the late morning and early afternoon before we see additional rain and showers develop. The NWS has issued a flash flood watch for much of Central and North Alabama through this evening.
The culprits in our wet weather pattern continue to be a combination of broad surface and upper lows off to our west. This combination has maintained a wet, tropical air mass over the Southeast states, and there is not any strong sign that this pattern will change much over the next few days. Timing of weak impulses coming through the flow have been difficult to make. As we get to mid and late week, the pattern does show a possible change as an upper low drops into the Southwest US and cuts off. The GFS takes the cut off to the four-corners area while other models are a bit further east. But the cut off could develop a bit of ridging over the Southeast which might help to reduce the shower coverage somewhat. The bad news is that daily showers will still be in the forecast with a southwesterly flow aloft keeping our atmosphere wet.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is not painting any areas of organized severe weather and I do not expect anything beyond the possibility of a marginally severe storm. The real threat over the next 3 to 4 days will be the potential for heavy rain which could lead to flash flooding as we have seen over the last several days.
Tropically, two areas are being watched. One near the Bahamas is what remains of Fred – yup, James might be right – perhaps Fred will be around at Christmas. The other is an area of disturbed weather about midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands which does show potential for development.
In week two, also known as voodoo country, the flow does seem to go more zonal, however, there continue to be a number of short waves to watch. The good news is that it does seem to be not quite as wet as what we have now.
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I hope you have a great weekend whatever your plans. I plan to have the next WXV posted by 8 am tomorrow morning. I do hope JB does not have indigestion from the variety of eats at the Southeast Severe Weather Symposium. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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