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Birmingham’s official weather site set a new record yesterday for the highest rainfall total for this date with 2.54 inches of rain. The old record was 1.98 inches set in 1969. This certainly attests to the heavy rain that some spots have experienced over the last several days. But this morning, the radar is not quite as full of echoes as we saw yesterday, and there are some signs that we may be getting out of the really wet pattern at least for a couple of days. A flash flood watch is in effect for Central Alabama until midnight tonight.
The broad upper trough to our west that has kept several days of active weather across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi River area has begun to edge out in response to a strong trough coming into the Northwest US. This strong trough will dive southeast on the eastern side of the Rockies and become a cut off low. As it does that, it will become detached from the prevailing flow and anchor for several days over the Southwest US.
This means that we will stay fairly wet through the next couple of days with shower coverage tapering off a bit by Tuesday and becoming more of a scattered shower scenario for mid-week. But a small ridge will likely develop in the upper atmosphere around Thursday and Friday which could significantly reduce the shower possibility across Central Alabama on Friday and Saturday.
Rainfall over the next five days will continue to be spotty because of the showery character of the rain. Some spots could potentially see 2 to 3 inches with isolated flash flooding possible.
By Sunday, however, as the four corners low phases with another strong trough in the westerlies and comes out across the Central US, we should see another round of wet weather by Sunday.
No significant severe weather is expected across the US. And the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching two areas in the Atlantic. The first is what is left of Fred just east of the northern Bahamas. This area remains disorganized and any development would be slow. The second area is about 1100 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and it shows some potential for tropical depression formation over the next couple of days.
And as we peek into voodoo country, the GFS shows a substantial ridge over the Central US around the 4th of October as we slide into the driest month of the year for Central Alabama.
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I had a great time at OktoberFest on Morris Avenue yesterday speaking with a number of Blog readers. It is always nice to hear from people in person about the Blog and to talk weather with other weather enthusiasts. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. I hope you have a great Sunday. Godspeed.
-Brian-
For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate information on past hailstorms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. We work primarily for people involved in insurance cases and for attorneys. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.
