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Showers and storms have formed again today, but they are not as numerous as yesterday, and it sure looks like the trend toward a drier airmass will continue through mid-week. While we can’t totally rule out the chance of a passing storm tomorrow or Wednesday, they should be few and far between, with the best chance coming over the western third of the state. Afternoons will remain hot with low to mid 90s tomorrow and Wednesday. The MOS products from the models remain too “cool”.
Late in the week and over the weekend, another surface boundary will approach Alabama from the north. While the 12Z GFS is not really bullish on showers, you have to figure there will be some increase in the number of afternoon showers and storms by Friday and the weekend with the front hanging around here. The GFS has been doing a poor job in the day 3-7 time frame, and I am not sure it has a good grasp on the weather situation in that period on this run. Afternoons will stay hot with a high each day up in the low or mid 90s.
LONG RANGE: The trend of a mean upper ridge in the west and upper trough in the east continues in the primary band of westerly winds aloft over North America through mid-July. Once again, this suggests normal temperatures and rainfall for Alabama, and occasional surface fronts approaching from the north should enhance the coverage of showers and storms from time to time.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through mid-week. If you are headed for the Gulf coast for the Independence Holiday, you will have to dodge a few scattered showers and storms each day this week, but there will be decent intervals of sunshine, and each day the high along the coast will be close to 90 degrees.
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