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Anyone remember the song by the Carpenters?
“Talkin’ to myself and feelin’ old
Sometimes I’d like to quit
Nothing ever seems to fit
Hangin’ around
Nothing to do but frown
Rainy Days and Mondays always get me down.”
BIG SOAKING: The NWS continues a flash flood watch for the northern half of Alabama… soaking rains are falling as I write this along and north of I-20; a quick glance over at our Skywatcher chat shows a number of places have already gone over one inch this morning, John Talbot in the Concord/Hueytown area is up to 1.52″, while Kristopher Gardner in Fayette has gone over two inches. I am up to 1.48″ at my place in North Shelby County, and the NWS in Birmingham has just issued a flash flood warning for Jefferson County. Looks like many places around here today will see a total of 2 to 4 inches of rain.
Widespread rain will continue through the day, then gradually tapering off during the evening hours. A few embedded thunderstorms are likely, but major severe weather problems are not expected today due to the lack of instability and shear. Most likely we won’t get out of the 60s with clouds and rain.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: Clouds will hang tough, and while the rain won’t be as widespread, we sure can’t rule out a few showers. Tomorrow should be a little warmer with a high back in the low to mid 70s.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: More wet and stormy weather. Flash flood watches most likely will be needed again as the rain could be heavy at times. And, on Thursday, good dynamic forcing will mean a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. For now, SPC has not defined a formal severe weather risk since the details are a little unclear, but we will have to be on our toes for the dual combination of flooding and severe weather. See the Weather Xtreme video, and you can see that the guys at HPC are suggesting a total of 7 inches of rain for much of North Alabama this week.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather turns sharply colder Friday as the rain moves out. Friday looks like a rather raw day, with temperatures holding in the 50s, lingering clouds, and a sharp northerly breeze. The weekend will be dry, with clearing on Saturday, but temperatures will be well below average. Even with some sunshine returning on Saturday I am not convinced we get out of the 50s with that cool north wind continuing.
FROST SUNDAY MORNING? I don’t think it will be widespread, but it looks like the colder pockets have a chance at their first frost of the season early Sunday with lows down in the mid to upper 30s. Birmingham, most likely, will be close to 40 early Sunday morning. Looks like the coldest air so far this season. We will get a little dose of what our friends out west and up north have been dealing with over the past few days.
The first couple of days of next week look dry with a warming trend at this point.
TROPICS: All is quiet across the Atlantic basin, and it sure looks like this will be a year with no major Gulf of Mexico tropical systems as the SSTs are beginning to cool. The season will end at the end of November.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new episode tonight; it will be posted by 11:00 p.m.
Busy day here… I am speaking at the University of Montevallo this morning, and then at Holt Elementary School at midday. I might have to swim to both places; I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day and stay dry!
