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RIGHT NOW: Rain overnight was not nearly as heavy as the models advertised, and nobody is complaining about that. I see 0.55″ in bucket this morning in North Shelby County; the heavier totals were to the northwest. Rain totals from our Skywatchers included 1.97″ at Bear Creek and 1.26″ at Fayette. The heaviest rain early this morning has shifted to the south and east, and the NWS in Birmingham has cancelled the flash flood watch. So, the morning drive won’t be too bad, at least as far as the weather is concerned. For a while yesterday it looked like we might be swimming to work this morning.
TODAY/TOMORROW: Clouds are going nowhere, and periods of rain are still possible today, but nothing especially heavy. We have one more short wave to deal with tomorrow, and that should bring an increase in the amount of rain, but I don’t think it will be enough to bring any serious flooding problems. There could be a little thunder in spots, but severe weather is not expected due to the lack of instability. The rain will finally taper off tomorrow night.
COOLEST AIR SO FAR: Friday will be a raw day, with strong cold air advection in progress. Clouds, a chilly north breeze, and temperatures in the 50s will highlight the day. The NAM is printing a high of only 52 for Birmingham Friday, and is probably not far from the truth. The GFS is in fantasy land with a high of 66; that is far too warm. There could be a little drizzle in spots during the morning, but the day will be generally dry despite the lingering clouds. Friday night will be chilly for high school football games with temperatures in the low 50s.
A deep upper trough will form over the eastern U.S. Friday, and a strong disturbance will be rotating through the base of that trough Saturday. For that reason, I figure it would be a mostly cloudy day, and a few sprinkles or patches of light rain might even be possible due to the strong upward motion. There won’t be much moisture to work with, but we might have to consider mentioning some risk of a little light rain if the 12Z model runs continue this trend. Again we won’t get out of the 50s on Saturday with a cool north breeze. Some places north of Birmingham could be in the 40s all day. The sky will clear Saturday night, with sunshine back in full force Sunday.
LOOK OUT FOR 30s: The latest GFS is printing 39 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Sunday. The surface high is still to the west, so I don’t expect any frost for the colder valleys, but Monday morning will be a different story. At that time the sky will be clear and the wind will be light, so you have to figure the colder valleys will be in the 33 to 39 degree range early Monday morning with frost very possible.
NEXT WEEK: A warming trend begins Monday afternoon with a sunny sky and a high around 70. Tuesday stays dry, but a storm system promises to bring another round of rain and storms by Wednesday night and Thursday.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | WeatherBrains Podcast | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
I will be doing a weather program this morning at Mount Laurel Elementary School in North Shelby County; then it is on to the office and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
