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For a state in the midst of a severe drought, wet weather is a good thing, and we will have occasional showers and storms through mid-week that will bring beneficial rain to a pretty good part of the state, thanks to a very moist airmass in place and a shortwave trough to the west of here.
Today should be very similar to yesterday, with scattered to numerous showers and storms by midday. Pretty much the same story tomorrow, as the moist air goes nowhere, and a surface front approaches from the north. There is a reasonable chance most communities will fail to reach 90 degrees today and tomorrow due to the clouds and showers. Rainfall amounts through 48 hours should average around one inch, but some spots will see more, and some will see less. The HPC QPF graphic (watch the video to see it) is showing a little over four inches of rain for northwest Alabama through Saturday, with 3 to 4 inches for a large part of North Alabama.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The forecast gets a little tricky as both the GFS and the NAM are now insisting that a surface cold front will push down to near U.S. 80 by daybreak Thursday. While cold fronts rarely move that far south in July, the models are showing a very deep upper trough for summer over the eastern U.S. giving the boundary the southward push. If the 12Z model runs continue this trend, we will greatly reduce, and maybe even eliminate the chance of rain on Thursday for the northern half of Alabama.
On Friday, the moisture moves northward again, and another front approaches from the north, so scattered showers and storms are possible. But, the GFS pushes that front down into South Alabama by Friday night, and moves dry air back in here on Saturday. The GFS is suggesting that we will be generally dry over the weekend, with lower humidity levels and cooler nights. Once again, we want to see the 12Z runs before we totally buy into that scenario. Just be aware that we might be making some changes to the forecast later today.
LONG RANGE: The GFS continues the trend of a ridge (and the associated heat) over the western U.S., and a trough over the east. This setup sure looks favorable for above normal rain here for the rest of July, with temperatures slightly below normal. Sure sounds good to me.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet, and tropical depression 4-E is moving through the open water of the eastern Pacific with little fanfare.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We recorded a new show last night, and it is now available. Kevin Selle will be posting the show notes on the blog a little later this morning… the show features quite a lively discussion about the Bill Proenza situation at NHC.
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I will be headed east this morning… I will be speaking to the senior adults at First Baptist Church of Talladega. I would imagine there just might be a really good lunch served up over there, you know… then it is back to the office where I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30!
