An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
DRY SPELL ENDING: Our pal Ida in the Gulf of Mexico will bring an end to our extended stretch of dry weather. Today, for most North/Central Alabama communities, will be potentially the 9th consecutive day without a drop of rain. The good news is that our wet weather this time won’t last for more than 36 hours or so.
EYES ON IDA: It will be interesting to see how long Ida can survive as a true tropical system today as it encounters cool water over the northern Gulf and increasing winds aloft as it interacts with the mid-latitude westerlies. This is November, not August, you know. The SST at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 19.4 degrees C, or 67 degrees F. Values are a little warmer farther off-shore, but still well below the 26.5 C levels you need for a tropical system to survive. Ida has weakened to a minimal hurricane this morning, and should be downgraded to a tropical storm soon. This system will not be a hurricane at the time of landfall; just a weakening tropical storm that will be making the chance to a cold core, mid-latitude system.
One way or another, of course, this will be a very wet and windy system for the Gulf coast. Scroll down for Dr. Tim Coleman’s excellent post. There could be enough wind on the coast for some scattered tree and power line damage, but this is not a system that will bring widespread damage or trouble. Mostly a big nuisance for our friends down in Pensacola, Mobile, and Gulf Shores.
MEDIA HYPE: Most of you know my concern over this issue; and as usual the guys on the cable channels have gone way overboard, talking about “mass evacuations possible”, “fear griping coastal residents”, and “one wonders what this stretch of coastline will look like later this week”. The greatest fear we have is from some of the TV reporters who clearly don’t know what they are talking about. Hype rules, I guess. I sure wish they could leave weather out of it. There will be times when we do have to talk about dangerous hurricanes and life threatening severe weather events, but this is not one of them.
UP THIS WAY: Rain will arrive here in North/Central Alabama tonight and will be widespread after midnight and through much of the day tomorrow. The NAM is printing 1.78″ of rain for Birmingham, while the GFS is wetter with 2.70″. We figure average amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, with some spots getting 3 inches or more on the high end. Thanks to our recent long dry spell, flash flood values are very high now, but the NWS has gone ahead and posted a flash flood watch to be on the safe side. Seems like major flooding problems won’t happen, but some localized issues are possible.
Winds here tomorrow will be out of the east in the 10 to 20 mph range, and should not be enough to create any big problems. The stronger winds will be way down south tonight, and even down there they will diminish rapidly late tonight and tomorrow as the Ida weakens quickly and changes over to a hybrid, cold core system.
The rain will end late tomorrow, and drier air returns tomorrow night.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Looks like another long dry spell setting up for Alabama. We expect mostly sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights through the latter half of the week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon highs will rise into the low 70s by Friday and the weekend with a good supply of sunshine each day. Looks like another great weekend for high school and college football games.
NEXT WEEK: A cold front will come through Sunday night, and for now it looks like it will pass through in dry fashion, and another surge of dry air arrives for the first half of next week. The Polar jet remains to the north, so no extremely cold air anytime soon. Highs early next week will be in the 60 to 65 degree range, with some of the colder spots getting down into the low to mid 30s by Tuesday morning.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new episode tonight; world famous meteorologist/engineer Tim Marshall will be our guest. The show will be posted by 11:00 or so tonight.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on THIS Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
We will have updates today as Ida weakens and approaches the coast… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day…
