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TODAY: Most of Alabama should enjoy a bright, sunny day today, although we do note clouds hung tough over parts of North Alabama all night. Those clouds have set up a huge variation in temperature this morning; the colder valleys where the sky is clear have reached the 20s, while other communities under a cloud cover are in the 40s. Our Skywatcher Vic Bell northeast of Gadsden reports a low of 29 this morning, while Birmingham is sitting at 43 degrees at 5:00 a.m. As J.B. says, you might have better luck throwing darts than forecasting lows on a morning like this.
Temperatures should reach the 60 degree mark today as a gradual warming trend begins.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: We stay dry tomorrow with ample sunshine and a high in the low to mid 60s. To the west, a surface low will begin to form over the western Gulf of Mexico, and that system will determine our weekend weather.
Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 06Z GFS has trended farther north, suggesting rain initially over South Alabama Saturday, then moving northward, covering much of the state Saturday night, then ending early Sunday. We do note models often struggle with southern stream systems like this during an El Nino cycle, so this solution would not be surprising. Let’s wait until the 12Z runs come out before we make any big changes to the ongoing forecast.
One way or another, the heaviest rain over the weekend will be over the southern half of the state, but just be aware that North Alabama could get wet as well, especially Saturday night.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Excellent weather for the remaining high school football playoff games tomorrow night; the sky will be mostly fair, with temperatures in the mid 50s at kickoff, falling to near 50 by the fourth quarter. Saturday, Alabama will host Chattanooga at Bryant-Denny Stadium with an 11:20 a.m. kickoff. The sky will be mostly cloudy, and some light rain is possible during the game. The kickoff temperature will be near 58 degrees, rising into the low 60s during the game. UAB is on the road; they will play East Carolina Saturday at 2:30 at Greenville, North Carolina. The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature around 65 degrees, falling into the upper 40s by the final whistle. Auburn has the day off.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: Monday looks like a mostly sunny and pleasant day. We will continue to mention a chance of showers and storms on Tuesday, but the models have trended northward with that short wave, and accordingly, drier for Alabama. The 06Z GFS shows hardly any rain with this feature. But again, models are not doing a good job in this fast moving pattern. The weather still looks dry and colder for Thanksgiving Day and Iron Bowl Friday/Black Friday; how cold is up for debate.
LONG RANGE: Eyes will remain on the bitterly cold air over Alaska; we all know some of that will have to move, and head down toward the continental U.S. toward the beginning of December. Too early to tell how much, if any, of that will reach Alabama. Wouldn’t be shocked, however, if we turn sharply colder as December begins.
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Look for then next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
