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COLD MORNING: Temperatures are colder than forecast this morning. Montgomery is down to 32 at 5:00, while Anniston reports 33. The colder spots are in the upper 20s with lots of frost. But, expect a nice warm-up today with ample sunshine and a high in the mid 60s. To the west, you can now see the big mass of rain gathering over the western Gulf of Mexico, and that system now promises to bring rain to the entire state over the weekend.
TURNING WET: The models continue to trend northward with the Gulf wave, and all of Alabama will get wet over the weekend. Watch the 06Z Weather Xtreme video and you will see the rain moving into Alabama tomorrow morning, becoming widespread by afternoon and tomorrow night as the surface low moves inland around Mobile. The NAM is printing 0.78″ for Birmingham over the weekend, while the GFS is at 0.70″. We will roll with that and forecast 1/2 to 1 inch of rain for the northern half of the state. The rain will taper off Sunday morning, but the clouds will linger through the day. The weekend will be cool with the clouds and rain; looks like we stay in the 50s all day tomorrow and Sunday. Very doubtful now we will be able to rise over the 60 degree mark.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Excellent weather for the remaining high school football playoff games tonight; the sky will be mostly fair, with temperatures in the mid 50s at kickoff, falling to near 50 by the fourth quarter. Tomorrow, Alabama will host Chattanooga at Bryant-Denny Stadium with an 11:20 a.m. kickoff. The sky will be mostly cloudy, and rain now looks likely during the game. The kickoff temperature will be near 58 degrees, possibly touching 60 during the game. UAB is on the road; they will play East Carolina Saturday at 2:30 at Greenville, North Carolina. The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature around 65 degrees, falling into the upper 40s by the final whistle. Auburn has the day off.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: It looks mostly dry for the Deep South. The idea of showers on Tuesday is pretty much off the table; I guess a shower is possible late in the day or Tuesday night, but very little moisture, and the best dynamic lift to the north means most communities will stay dry. The 06Z GFS shows a sharp upper trough over the east by Thanksgiving Day; if this is correct our Thanksgiving will be pretty cold with a high in the 40s and a chilly north wind. We could very well reach the 20s at daybreak Friday as the shoppers head out to grab the bargains. Friday looks dry and the Iron Bowl should be played under a sunny sky in Auburn with afternoon temperatures in the 50s, perhaps reaching the low 60s. Of course, we will be fine tuning this forecast in coming days.
EARLY DECEMBER COLD: Teleconnections support the GFS idea of very cold air flooding much of the nation as December begins. That -45 degree (F) air over Alaska has to come somewhere, you know. But, with the El Nino cycle, remember cold shots this winter should be short lived (not that we ever stay in really cold air for long at this low latitude).
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
I am speaking to students this morning at the Etowah County Career Technical Center… I should be able to crank out another Weather Xtreme video this afternoon before heading over to the Summit to lead their Lights Up parade:
“Enjoy a festive parade complete with marching bands, antique fire trucks, floats and more. ABC 33/40 Chief Meteorologist James Spann will lead the parade from Johnny Rockets to Barnes & Noble. Plus, The Summit will light up its twinkling holiday décor! Don’t miss Santa’s arrival and free photos following a grand fireworks show. Afterwards, slip inside Barnes & Noble for Nutcracker story time with Alabama Ballet’s costumed performers.”
That parade begins at 6:30… hope to see many of you there!
