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A nice pool of drier air aloft is moving into North Alabama, effectively shutting off the development of showers and storms despite the high dewpoints still in place. Sure looks like most of the showers and storms for the rest of the afternoon and evening will be south of a line from Mobile to Montgomery and Opelika. In fact, SPC is monitoring this region for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.
TOMORROW: Looks hot and dry, but with lower humidity. I figure we will reach the mid 90s tomorrow with a good supply of sunshine. Any showers or storms should be confined to the southern half of the state.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Moisture moves northward, and we will bring back the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday as another surface front approaches from the north, and an upper level impulse develops to the west. We need to keep a chance of scattered showers and storms in the forecast through the weekend as the 12Z GFS has finally given up on the idea of drier air moving into North Alabama on Saturday, and I think that is the correct concept here. There will be some sun over the weekend, but we will dodge scattered showers and storms both days, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
The GFS looks a little cool for the weekend with highs only in the mid to upper 80s; I figure we will be pretty close to 90 on both days, away from showers and storms.
NEXT WEEK: I think persistence is the best forecast next week… a blanket of moist air will continue to hover over Alabama, and with really nothing to inhibit the development of showers you can plan on a few storms around each afternoon with highs in the low 90s.
TROPICS: We do note a tropical wave around latitude 10 N, longitude 32 W, which is far out in the Atlantic. But, once again water vapor imagery shows a vast supply of dry air in advance of the system, which will probably keep the system from getting out of hand.
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