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RIGHT NOW: Scattered light rain continues to move across Alabama this afternoon, with temperatures generally in the 50 to 60 degree range, a little warmer than forecast due to some thin spots in the overcast, especially over East Alabama.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Periods of rain will continue tonight and tomorrow as a major winter storm begins to lift northward from the Southwest U.S. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video to see what the big snow looks like out in Flagstaff, Arizona this afternoon. Winter storm watches and warnings blanket the nation from Arizona to Michigan; some places will see well over one foot of snow along the way.
Down here, of course, we will be dealing with rain and a few thunderstorms. The big question is, can we get into the true warm sector of the big mid-latitude cyclone over the nation’s mid-section. The GFS is the most aggressive model, developing a strong southerly low level jet tomorrow afternoon, pushing temperatures into the mid 60s along with dewpoints in the upper 50s as far north as Birmingham. The RPM shows surface based CAPE values to almost 1,000 j/kg tomorrow night, with 0 to 1 km helicity values are almost off the chart. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the STP (significant tornado parameter) is highest near Tuscaloosa around midnight tomorrow night.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: So, no doubt we will have some risk of severe weather tomorrow night, with the degree of instability the true determining factor in the degree of the threat. Looks like our main window for severe weather will come from about 8:00 p.m. tomorrow through 4:00 a.m. Wednesday. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible; we will to watch for rotating updrafts closely. SPC maintain a slight severe weather risk (their standard risk) for the southern two-thirds of Alabama, they have trimmed the Tennessee Valley since no surface based instability shows up there.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Showers and storms should end during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, with some sun peeking through during the day. Temperatures will peak in the 60s Wednesday, but sharply colder air invades the state Thursday. The GFS is printing a high of 48 degrees here Thursday; that is probably a little too warm since the cold air is very shallow.
LATE IN THE WEEK: The next impulse will bring rain back to Alabama Friday night. We will still just mention a cold rain for now, but I have fear the models are underestimating the low level thermal fields. While I really don’t expect snow flakes, the biggest problem initially could come from freezing rain, or rain that falls with surface temperatures are 32 degrees or colder. Again, we will just stick with rain for now and make changes as needed later in the week.
OUR WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS is much slower with the next impulse, and keeps rain over much of the state into the day Saturday. It will be a cold rain with temperatures only in the 40s during the day Saturday, which is looking more and more like a wet, raw, and cold day. Sunday will be brighter with a high in the 50s.
LONG RANGE: Check out the AO outlook (Arctic Oscillation) on the Weather Xtreme video… that thing spikes strongly negative at mid-month, which often will open the door for some seriously cold air to make it’s way down into the Deep South. We will be waiting and watching with interest.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Gary England, long time Oklahoma City TV meteorologist, will join us on tonight’s show. It should be posted by 11:00 p.m. CST.
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
