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Not much change in our overall thinking from this morning concerning the chance of strong to severe storms across Alabama tonight.
RIGHT NOW: The temperature/dewpoint at Tuscaloosa is up to 62/59 at 2:00; down south Mobile is now reporting a dewpoint of 64 with strong southeast winds. The higher dewpoints will advect up in here this evening, brining surface based instability (CAPE) values to almost 1,000 j/kg over West Alabama this evening. Helicity values are very high; from the midday Jackson, MS sounding:
As an overview, modifying for current conditions in Northeast LA/West Central MS gives MLCAPE values between 800 and 1200 J/kg. 0-1 km SR helicity around 550 m2/s2 and impressive deep layer shear of 75 kt 0-6 km. (from Alan Gerard, the meteorologist in charge of the Jackson office)
A tornado watch is in effect for much of Mississippi, and adjacent parts of Arkansas and Louisiana until 9:00 p.m.
TIMING: The threat of severe storms will begin in West Alabama around 6:00 p.m. The threat will spread east during the night, and severe weather will be possible in the Birmingham metro are early as 8:00. The East Alabama threat will be generally after 10:00. The entire event should wind down by 2:00 a.m.
THE THREAT: All modes of severe weather weather will be possible, including hail, damaging straight line winds, and isolated tornadoes. The best severe weather parameters will be over the western half of the state, west of I-65, but a few severe storms are possible over the eastern counties as well. SPC has the highest tornado probabilities along and about 65 miles north and south of U.S. 80 (Jackson to Meridian to Demopolis to Montgomery). Some of the communities in this region include Tuscaloosa, Greensboro, Eutaw, Brent, York, Demopolis, Selma, Marion, Butler, Linden, and Camden.
We should also mention that additional rain amounts of 1 inch are likely tonight, but it should not be enough for widespread or serious flash flooding.
As usual, we encourage everyone to be close to a good source of weather information tonight in the event watches and warnings are needed, which looks likely. Never rely on outdoor warning sirens for severe weather information.
TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Tomorrow should be the nicest day of the week, with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the low 60s. Thursday promises to be sharply colder. The GFS and the NAM are printing highs in the 46 to 49 degree range; they probably don’t have a good grasp on the shallow cold layer. We figure highs on Thursday will be in the 41 to 45 degree range with sunshine filtered by high clouds.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A cold rain will overspread Alabama beginning Friday afternoon, and then continuing Friday night into Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be only in the 40s, and it looks like we will stay above freezing Friday night and early Saturday morning, preventing any major icing issues. But, we will feel much more confident dealing with this system after we get tonight’s storms out of the way. Sunday will be dry with a high back in the low to mid 50s.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The next rain producer shows up on Tuesday of next week, followed by a shot of cold air. The rest of December still looks cold and unsettled making for some interesting days in the ole weather office.
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We will keep the blog updated with fresh information on this severe weather event as it unfolds tonight… stay tuned. And, don’t forget you can see our live radar stream here on the blog; you can click to make it full screen if you like.
