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Looks like we’re in for another couple of days of unsettled weather. Probably not too many complaints about it coming on the weekend since we still desperately need the rain. The scattered showers have been great, but some places still continue to be missed. I have not seen a significant rain at my house in Helena since the 95 hundredths on July 7th. I keep getting some light stuff with 5 hundredths here and then 2 hundredths but another good soaking would be welcome. At least one dogwood tree has bitten the dust in my back yard, a victim of the drought.
With the pattern of the long wave trough over the eastern US plus the weakness we see in the 500 millibar pattern, it looks like the unsettled weather pattern will stay with us for about the next 48 hours. The latest GFS seems to slide the weakness at 500 millibars a bit further south, but just the fact that it remains in the area with great moisture should keep showers in the forecast. I note that precipitable water values remain pretty high. A dew point discontinuity is visible in the surface chart with dew points running in the 60s in Northeast Alabama and in the lower 70s for much of the rest of the state.
Temperatures will be somewhat mild today and Sunday thanks to the extended cloud cover. Rainfall amounts across Central Alabama will still remain spotty just because of the nature of showers. However, rainfall is likely to be around one inch for many spots over the next five days especially over the next three days or so.
The pattern seems headed back to something a bit more typical of summer time as the long wave trough over the eastern US pulls northward and shifts eastward. This allows the ridge to build back over the Southeast so I expect to see temperatures climbing back into the 90s. Fortunately the moisture is not likely to change much, so we should continue to see scattered showers almost everyday.
Stepping out into voodoo land, the east coast trough returns around the 24th but it cycles out and the ridge comes back strongly by the end of the cycle around the 29th.
Showers continue to make an impact on the drought but it still remains in the exceptional category for a large part of northern Alabama covering the area from Birmingham to Florence to Scottsboro to Anniston and back to Birmingham. The latest deficit for Birmingham stood at 17 inches so we still have a long way to go.
I’m enjoying another opportunity to be at Mt. Cheaha. My wife and I have the travel trailer here and we are staying through Monday at least. Temperatures here this morning we very nice as we dipped down into the 60s. The clouds produced a few drops but nothing that would come close to qualifying as rain – just a few sprinkles. I hope you will be able to have a great weekend and enjoy being with family and friends. I will have another Weather Xtreme Video posted tomorrow morning by 9 am or so – did sleep a little later this morning. God bless.
-Brian-
