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RAW DAY: Contrary to our initial thoughts, and good for our friends down south, it looks now like the heaviest axis of rain today will wind up over the central counties of Alabama, and the NWS in Birmingham has just pulled the flash flood watch northward to include this part of the state. I honestly don’t think we will have serious or widespread flooding issues, but based on radar trends it looks like the I-20 corridor could wind up with 1 to 2 inches of rain before it all winds down later today. And, it looks like the rain will be ending during the midday hours as our surface low, now near Mobile, moves northeast.
Otherwise, the day will be cold and raw with temperatures holding in the low 40s and a chilly east wind. A good day to stay inside and sleep (won’t work for me, and probably not for you either, but a nice idea).
THE WEEKEND: Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and cold, and with energy passing through aloft, we could see a few sprinkles or snow flurries over North Alabama. Moisture will be limited, and precipitation won’t amount to much. Both the GFS and the NAM are printing a high of 45 for Birmingham, which means the actual high should be closer to 41. Sunday will feature a partly sunny sky with a high in the mid 40s.
FLAKES OR FLOODING NEXT WEEK? Confidence is excellent in a major pre-Christmas storm impacting much of the nation, but you can forget trying to nail down details with pure model madness in the house. The latest series of global runs, GFS, ECMWF, GEM, have trended significantly northward with the surface cyclone, shifting us from the snow zone to the storm zone at mid-week. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the details; the idea they are offering now is a round of rain and strong storms Wednesday-Thursday, before much colder air arrives Christmas Day.
The El-Nino storm train pattern doesn’t really favor anything like this, so let’s get to Sunday and we will have a much better idea of what happens. Once we get within 84 hours, we always feel better about a big event like this. I would not take any idea off the table now, including snow for parts of the Deep South. Watch the models change again over the weekend. Nobody knows the details now; all we can do is sit back and watch. And remember, take the ensemble approach instead of staring at every individual run that comes out; it will save you lots of time.
AULD LANG SYNE: As we have discussed, the wave train won’t be shutting down anytime soon, and another big storm is on the table for the period just before New Year’s Day. So, if we miss snow next week, there should be more opportunities in the days ahead.
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