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A big thank you to J.B. Elliott, Bill Murray, Brian Peters, Jason Simpson, and Ashley Brand for allowing me a little time off to spend with family. I really do appreciate it. But, time to get back in the saddle. For the thousands of newcomers, welcome. We do this year round, you know, so you are welcome to drop by anytime, even when the weather is calmer.
I also want to encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video that goes along with these discussions this week since I tend to be better at communicating with the maps; a picture is worth a thousand blog posts sometimes.
BIG TIME COLD: Forget the snow talk, my greatest concern is the cold. This cold wave had a chance to get in our record books in a number of ways, including the consecutive days with daily minimum temps below freezing. Below is the raw GFS output for the next seven days (morning lows for Birmingham), and trust me, the GFS will be TOO WARM on most mornings:
Tuesday 16
Wednesday 17
Thursday 21
Friday 15
Saturday 12
Sunday 13
Monday 24
Most likely, we will go below freezing Thursday afternoon, and they there until Sunday afternoon when we creep into the mid 30s. In other words, around 72 consecutive hours of sub-freezing temperatures. This period will be longer for the colder pockets across North Alabama.
There is a very real chance we head down into the 4 to 9 degree range Saturday and Sunday morning, especially if we have a little snow cover here. You can see the reason we are concerned about elderly people without a good source of heat and house fires due to improper use of space heaters.
RIGHT NOW: A short wave is producing a few light snow flurries across West Alabama, but due to the very dry air near the surface, most of the snow is evaporating before reaching the ground. Some of you might see a few snow flakes this morning, but otherwise the day will be partly sunny and cold with temperatures struggling to rise above the freezing mark.
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY: We stay cold and dry; highs in the 30s, lows in the teens. Wednesday will be the “warmest” day with a high in the upper 30s.
SNOW THURSDAY? This is what has everybody buzzing… no doubt we will have a little snow Thursday with a short wave, but the amount of moisture available is very much in question. Watch the Weather Extreme video for the overall idea. Some snow is very likely, but the American models (GFS, NAM) point to a light event with no Gulf moisture involved (dusting to 1 inch), while the GEM and the ECMWF point to a 2 to 3 inch potential snow around here. Long time readers know I don’t like to draw snow accumulation maps until we get within 72 hours of a winter weather event, so I will do that tomorrow morning. Is is simply too early right now. We discuss long range ideas here out to 16 days, then forecasts out to 7 days. But, when it comes to the nitty gritty details of a winter weather event around here, there just isn’t much skill beyond 72 hours. And, you all know sometimes there isn’t much skill within 24 hours.
I would tend to lean toward the drier NAM/GFS solution for now. We will be waiting and watching with interest.
OUR WEEKEND: Bone chilling cold. Saturday morning will be the coldest morning with a low between 4 and 9 degrees above zero, with highs in the 20s. Sunday morning should get us down to near 10 degrees, with more single digits for the colder valleys. The weekend will be dry with ample sunshine Saturday and Sunday.
CALIFORNIA WEATHER: Spectacular weather all week for all of the Alabama fans that have headed west for the BCS National Championship game. There could be some Santa Ana conditions by Thursday night, but hopefully there will be no fire threat during the game. Highs will be well into the70s each day. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Just about perfect.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: We moderate somewhat next week, but note the AO remains strongly negative through mid-month, so more cold air will likely invade the Deep South in 10 days or so, and the GFS shows another winter storm potential at mid-month. Again, forget the models, looks at the intense negative Arctic Oscillation, and the El Nino in place. Lots of potential for winter weather mischief in coming weeks.
LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate means of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. This week’s show will be recorded tomorrow morning; it should be posted by midday. Some of the upcoming guests on the netcast that’s all about weather include Hannah Bayman from the BBC, Brian Neudorff (the NASCAR weatherman), Mike Nelson from Denver, author David Laskin, Corey Ann Walton from the National Hurricane Center, storm chaser/photographer Dan Robinson and radar expert Les Lemon. We will have two specials on Amateur Radio and Social Media and weather. It will be a fun year.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day and STAY WARM!
