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FOGGY START: Visibilities are down to just a fraction of a mile in spots due to fog across Alabama, but once that fog burns off we expect a nice day with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the upper 50s. For those you of you working today, take some extra time to get to work and let’s take it easy out there.
Tomorrow should be warmer, with a mix of sun and clouds and a high up in the low 60s. The clouds you see tomorrow are in advance of a major weather system out west, which is bringing heavy rain and lots of mountain snow to California and the Southwest U.S. Places like Phoenix and Los Angeles could see 6 to 10 inches of rain this week with potential for very major flooding. It will be a big mess out there.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: A warm front will move northward through Alabama during the day Wednesday, and will bring some risk of rain at times. But, the main band of rain and storms will arrive Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This system has the potential to bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to this part of Alabama, and a strong storm is certainly possible. SPC has the far Southwest corner of Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday night, mainly Mobile and Baldwin counties, instability values will be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. Up this way, there is very little surface based CAPE, and a major severe weather problem for now is not expected. Seems like the heaviest rain will come from about 6:00 p.m. Wednesday through 6:00 a.m. Thursday. The rain will taper off Thursday as a dry slot of mid level air works into Alabama, and the heaviest rain moves off to the east.
Once again, no cold air following this system, and the GFS is printing 67 degrees for Birmingham on Friday. That might be a little warm, but no doubt we should break the 60 degree mark again on Friday.
WEEKEND PEEK: Yet another wet weather system will impact Alabama this weekend. For now, Saturday looks like a dry and mild day with increasing clouds, and then a healthy round of showers and storms will arrive late Saturday night and during the day Sunday. Interesting to note SPC has the southern two-thirds of Alabama in a severe weather risk on Sunday; see the Weather Xtreme video for details. Another 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely along with that chance of strong to severe storms. Now that the Arctic air is gone, we sure are getting back into a wet pattern, something you expect with an El Nino cycle (although we are getting in the late stages of this one).
LONG RANGE: This is only mid-January, so don’t put up the winter clothes. The pattern favors more cold air next month as our old friend the AO wants to take a big dip again. Time will tell.
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