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Central Alabama is waking up to thunderstorms this morning as a line of isolated storms was moving across the state. At 7:15 am the line stretched from about Chattanooga to Slidell, Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of one half to one inch will be likely across much of the area. A tornado watch was also in effect until 1 pm (I mistakenly said 9 am in the video) for much of Southwest Alabama from Marengo County to Mobile Bay. NWS offices in Birmingham and Mobile had issued tornado warnings for a couple of counties.
Main instability remained in the Gulf with a rather complex pattern across the Southeast. Temperatures across North Alabama and much of Central Alabama remained in the 50s, so there still remains a question of how far north the instability can surge. MUCAPE extended to BHM while SBCAPE was confined to Gulf of Mexico. Shear is in place so I expect to see rotating storms with 0 to 3 kilometer storm relative helicity over 750 across Alabama.
The initial line of storms should advance fairly quickly across Central Alabama and I think much of the rain will have ended by noon or early this afternoon. However, the colder, drier air is still way back in Missouri/Arkansas so additional rain/showers will be possible until this front passes early tomorrow morning.
Monday and Tuesday are shaping up as sunny days but it will be much colder for us compared with the last week or so. We should recover by mid week just in time for the development of another weather system in the southern stream. Both the southern and northern streams are expected to remain active.
Looks like Thursday will be the transition day as the new system develops to our west with the main rain threat coming on Friday. Timing of this might change a little since we are talking 5 to 6 days out. This should clear the way for the rain to end on Saturday morning with a cooler day. It will be chilly once again on Sunday before we begin to rebound on Monday of the following week. And just like the system we are dealing with today, there is some threat of severe weather Friday but the question will be how far north the instability can reach.
Long range model projects suggest the active streams continue so the pattern of rain/storms about every third to fourth day sticks with us.
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Stay tuned to the Blog for the latest on the changing weather situation. I hope you have a good Sunday. James Spann will be back on Monday with the next Weather Xtreme Video. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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