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TONIGHT: With a clear sky and diminishing wind, we will drop pretty quickly, and most spots will wind up in the 28 to 32 degree range early tomorrow. Certainly nothing like the nights with a hard freeze we experienced earlier in the month, but a light freeze is sure likely.
We should note an impulse in the upper flow could squeeze out a few snow flurries tonight or early tomorrow over the northeast corner of the state, mainly over Jackson and DeKalb counties. No impact on our weather down this way.
TOMORROW-THURSDAY: Tomorrow will be very much like today. Sunny and cool with a high not too far from 50 degrees. And, we should drop to the freezing mark again early Wednesday. A warming trend begins Wednesday afternoon with mid 50s likely. Clouds will begin to increase Thursday ahead of the next storm system.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A pretty challenging forecast. The 12Z models are slower and warmer for Alabama on Friday. Watch the Weather Xtreme video, and you will see the global models, at least the 12Z runs, are pretty much on the same page. The bring in a soaking rain on Friday, followed by a sharp change to colder weather Friday night and over the weekend.
The 00Z GFS had printed a high of only 39 for Birmingham Friday, but the 12Z run is showing a high of 54, reflecting the slower arrival time of the colder air. It could be a situation where we reach that high in the mid 50s late Friday morning, followed by falling temperatures Friday afternoon and into Friday night.
Looks like a good one to two inch rain for the state, and there will still be some window for the rain tapering off to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, or light snow Friday evening. Seems like the wintry precipitation will be pretty light, and for now we won’t mention any travel problems. But, this is a very difficult pattern to forecast with interaction between two distinct jet streams, so things could change.
Saturday looks really cold with a high only in the upper 30s and a brisk north wind, along with some risk of morning snow flurries. Our coldest morning will come early Sunday with the low will be in the low 20s. Then, we will warm to near 50 degrees Sunday afternoon with a bright sunny sky.
NEXT WEEK: Monday looks dry, but the 12Z GFS brings in some light rain on Tuesday. Then, getting into February, there is little confidence since global model output is all over the board. But, no for now the ensembles are not showing any extremely cold Arctic air invading the Deep South for the first 15 days of the month.
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