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Bottom line here is that we won’t make any changes in our ongoing forecast after a close review of the 12Z model runs. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the details and graphics.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: We will stay clear with temperatures headed down into the low 30s by daybreak tomorrow. Then, we warm nicely tomorrow with a high near 60 degrees with a partly sunny sky. It will be a very comfortable mid-winter day.
TO THE WEST: While we enjoy 60 degree warmth tomorrow, Oklahoma will be going on ice as our major winter storm cranks up along the I-40 corridor. The icing over the southern half of Oklahoma will be enough for major power outages, and heavy snow is likely for the northern part of the state. The ice and snow will move into Arkansas tomorrow night.
ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE FRIDAY: A soaking rain is likely for much of Alabama, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches likely. To the north, winter storm conditions are likely over much of Tennessee, including the major cities of Memphis, Nashville, and Knoxville. All of the Volunteer State is under a winter storm watch. Memphis is expecting 1 to 2 inches of snow, with ice accumulation of 1/4 inch (which is significant). Lots of questions about Gatlinburg; looks like 2 to 4 inches are likely, with potential for much more across higher terrain. It will be mostly snow with little ice for the Great Smoky Mountains.
It will be a very close call for Muscle Shoals, Huntsville, and Scottsboro (Alabama’s Tennessee Valley) Friday night, but it still looks like the most significant snow/ice problems will be north of the state line. However, some bridge icing is very possible across extreme North Alabama late Friday night into Saturday morning.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Colder air will drop south, and there remains a chance that the rain could mix with snow or sleet as far south as I-20 before it ends. The good news is that thermal values hint that temperatures along the I-20 corridor will remain above freezing all night, meaning no travel issues. However, north of U.S. 278 (a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), some icy spots will be possible Friday night as temperatures up that way get very close to 32.
SATURDAY: The day will be breezy and cold with temperatures having a hard time getting out of the 30s with wind chill index values below freezing much of the day. We will continue to mention some risk of morning snow flurries on the back side of the departing storm system.
SUNDAY: We will head down into the low 20s early Sunday morning with a clear sky and diminishing wind; the colder valleys have a decent chance of reaching the upper teens. Then, a warming trend begins Sunday afternoon with a sunny sky and a high in the mid 40s.
BOTTOM LINE: No real compelling reason to change anything in our forecast. Mostly a soaking rain event for North-Central Alabama, with some risk of a little sleet or snow on the back side of the departing storm late Friday night and Saturday morning. The bulk of the winter weather problems will be well to the north of us.
NEXT WEEK AND INTO VOODOO LAND: Still looking at a chance of rain on Tuesday of next week; beyond that there is very little confidence in a specific solution due to bad run to run model output. We do note the AO shows a very strong negative spike at mid-month; the operational GFS shows nothing in terms of severely cold weather, but we will need to keep an eye on that.
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I had a great time today speaking to the kids at Mount Laurel Elementary School in Shelby County; be looking for those kids on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
