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Not much of a way to win in the forecasting department this time of the year. Today is a great example of why it really is best not to be cute and try to pinpoint exactly where rain will fall. The best we can do is say “scattered showers and storms” in the forecast, and then begin make more specific calls once the showers get on radar. It is also another great reason why we never use “probability of precipitation” in our forecast here… if you hear there is a “60 percent chance of rain”, you heard that somewhere else. Read more about how we forecast weather in the summer here.
TODAY: As I write this update at 2:45 p.m… our SKYCAM location in Gadsden is reporting 63 degrees with a steady rain falling (total rain there 1.41″). We have one observation of over four inches of rain near Bynum, just east of Anniston in Calhoun County.
But, here at the ABC 33/40 Studio in Riverchase (near the Galleria), not a drop of rain has fallen today. The sun is shining, and we have 87 degrees. Then, to the west, there are more scattered showers and storms over the western half of the state, including some strong storms over Fayette, Pickens, Tuscaloosa, and Marengo Counties. The NWS has just reported trees blown down on Alabama Highway 171 south of Fayette. Quite the summer hodgepodge of weather.
ON THE MAPS: We have a closed upper low over West Virginia right now, and those things can bring real headaches for weather forecasters and computer models. The GFS takes this thing northwest, to near Detroit, before it weakens and is swept out to the east late this week. A trough extending southward from the upper low should keep our weather a bit unsettled through mid-week, with more clouds than sun and a chance of showers and storms on a daily basis. Like today, they will be scattered, with some neighborhoods getting soaked, and others not getting a drop. The chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday is about one in three.
WEEKEND PEEK: A maritime tropical airmass will linger over Alabama this week, so we will have the usual summer mix of sun and storms with a high not far from 90 degrees (away from shower areas) on Saturday and Sunday.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any serious heat around here through mid-August, and sufficient moisture should remain in a place for the daily risk of scattered showers and storms.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin looks pretty quiet now; a few waves here and there not nothing organized.
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We had a ball today at the annual summer intern lunch; I will post some pictures shortly… and the next Weather Xtreme video will be loaded by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
