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Trying to forecast convection on a summer day in Alabama is always a challenge… after a slow start we are beginning to see quite a few healthy showers and storms forming over all of Alabama at mid-afternoon. No doubt, they are more widely scattered than yesterday, but some neighborhoods will see a decent downpour over the next four to five hours.
LOOKING AHEAD: The big upper low west of Pittsburgh will weaken and finally be kicked to the east by the end of the week, but the weakness in the upper air flow extending to the southwest will linger. We will just have to pull out the broad brush and forecast a chance of scattered showers and storms on a daily basis through the weekend. There will be some decent intervals of sunshine along with way, and afternoon highs will remain generally in the 87 to 91 degree range, a little below normal for late July in Alabama. Trying to tell you exact details about the placement and coverage of the daily showers and storms is almost impossible to do since they are driven by mesoscale processes, instead of the synoptic scale features you see on weather maps and model output (like the GFS).
LONG RANGE: Still nothing to suggest any serious heat wave around here through mid-August, and the daily chance of scattered showers and storms should keep rain amounts a little above normal.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains pretty quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the rest of the week.
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I sure enjoyed my visit to RMC Hospital in Anniston today… very friendly people and a wonderful facility. Be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
