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Convection is cranking up on our radar screen this afternoon, and will continue well into the evening hours. Birmingham is reporting 89 degrees at 2:00, but some places are up in the low 90s. And, we note that SPC has placed the northeast corner of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather for the rest of the afternoon and into tonight; that slight risk runs basically from Huntsville to Pittsburgh. A lobe of energy rotating around the upper low near Detroit is expected to aid thunderstorm development in that region during the next six hours, and some of those most likely will drift down into North Alabama. We might have another big lightning show for some folks across North Alabama tonight.
LOOKING AHEAD: Not much change is expected through Sunday. The GFS continues to hint that the best coverage of showers and storms will come on Sunday, but even then they will be scattered. Afternoon highs should be in the 89 to 93 degree range over the next several days.
The 12Z GFS continues the trend of developing a surface low over the Carolinas on Monday, which pulls drier air down into the Tennessee Valley by Monday night. Then, most all of Alabama is dry on Tuesday and Wednesday as the low moves northeast, up the Atlantic coast. We will really trend much drier in our forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week based on this scenario, which still has the potential to be wrong. But, you can’t ignore the model persistence.
TROPICS: Lots of buzz about the big mass of convection in the western Gulf of Mexico, but there is no surface low, pressures are not falling, and winds from 500 mb to 200 mb sure don’t look favorable for any serious organization, as the system is well to the north of the upper air high over the Yucatan Peninsula. But, this mass of moisture has the potential to bring lots of rain to the coasts of Texas and Louisiana during the next 48 hours.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS lost the tropical system it has been showing in the Atlantic in the August 4-12 time frame in previous runs, and the model still suggests no real excessive heat here during the period…. the most blistering heat should remain northwest of Alabama.
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I enjoyed speaking to the kids at the Weatherly Learning Center in Alabaster today; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
