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While a few showers or storms could fire up this afternoon (this is late July in Alabama, you know), they should be pretty isolated as the air aloft today will be a little warmer, and the air a little more stable. With the increased amount of hazy sunshine we expect a high in the low 90s in most spots today; that is where we should be this time of the year.
THE WEEKEND: We will mention a chance of scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, but the best coverage of showers should come on Sunday as moisture levels increase, and a surface front approaches from the north. Most North Alabama communities should get wet at least once Sunday or Sunday night.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues the idea of much drier air moving into Alabama early in the week, but it is struggling with the timing. The 00Z GFS keeps moisture over just about all of Alabama on Monday; for now our ongoing public forecast over on the seven day page mentions the best chance of showers and storms south of Birmingham on Monday. We might have to drop that phrase “south of Birmingham” if the 12Z model comes in like the 00Z run. Fronts really have a hard time moving into Alabama this time of the year.
Even Tuesday, the dry air only gets down to around Clanton, so showers and storms are still possible over the southern half of the state. Then, Wednesday and Thursday of next week really look dry statewide, that is very suspicious.
LONG RANGE: The 00Z GFS develops a tropical storm near the eastern tip of Cuba on August 6, and then moves it to a point just east of Daytona Beach on August 9. It shows landfall at Charleston on August 10. But first time readers need to understand this is pure voodoo. Forget the specifics, but the idea of a tropical system in the Atlantic does have some merit, so we will sure keep our eyes peeled to the satellite images in coming weeks, since this is the time when the tropical season does tend to heat up.
The big mass of convection yesterday in the western Gulf of Mexico made some hurricane fans drool, but underneath all of those clouds there is nothing at the surface of interest, and no tropical storm formation is expected there. Moisture will move up into the Texas and Louisiana coasts, however, with the potential for some heavy rain.
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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
