The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes.
It is so nice as a meteorologist when you have a pretty good handle on the weather situation resulting in a good forecast. Yes, I am feeling a bit smug today since the forecasts for the last several days have been good. Summertime patterns with the relatively random nature of showers is tough on forecasting, but that weak front/convergence zone for the last several days has been a feature you can really grab onto and give some pretty good specifics on the area where showers are going to be. Won’t be as easy as that feature weakens and washes out and we get back under the broad ridge, so you’ve got to enjoy it while you can.
The overall pattern for the next seven days is rather bland. The convergence zone or weak front washes out with time and moisture will slowly return toward the end of the week. This should return scattered showers to the forecast around Friday and into the weekend.
With the broad ridge in place as the east coast trough finally exits to the east we should see fairly warm temperatures with readings primarily in the middle 90s. I suspect we’ll see a spot or two reach the upper 90s. With more moisture and clouds Friday and into the weekend temperatures should settle back into the 91 to 95 degree range.
Tropics have suddenly become more active. The National Hurricane Center forecasters named Chantal while I was preparing the video, but not the one I expected to be named Chantal. They named the storm north-northwest of Bermuda as it became a weak tropical storm this morning. Meanwhile, I’m still watching the disturbance 700 miles east of the southern Windward Islands which has a more serious presentation on the morning visible satellite image. There is some dry air ahead of this disturbance but overall the signs appear somewhat favorable for a depression to form. The future track projections bring the disturbance into the eastern Caribbean where water temperatures are fairly warm. Stay tuned on this one. If you get a chance to view the satellite imagery, this disturbance sure presents as a rather tight feature.
I don’t have much confidence in the longer range GFS. The 500 millibar pattern continuing the ridge across the southern US sure looks reasonable, but the GFS surface map showed no signs of anything in the tropics and the precipitation forecasts were almost completely blank – maybe the GFS is taking some time off. I sure expected to see a tropical feature since the GFS is usually pretty quick to jump on something in the tropics. Oh, well, voodoo land and anything can happen.
I’ve got to tackle the dreaded lawn mowing today, but I know I will survive to bring you another Weather Xtreme Video by 8:30 am tomorrow. Got to get the mower out before temperatures hit 90. I hope you have a great Tuesday. God bless.
-Brian-
