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Here are some observations from our SKYCAM network as I write this at 5:30 this morning…
Mt. Cheaha 12 (wind chill -3)
Gadsden 15 (wind chill 7)
Hamilton 15 (wind chill 2)
Cullman 15 (wind chill 3)
Birmingham 18 (wind chill 7)
Jasper 18 (wind chill 12)
Tuscaloosa 20 (wind chill 9)
Gulf Shores 28 (wind chill 17)
You can see the the images and data anytime here.
The Birmingham Airport is reporting 18 degrees, right at our forecast low. That is within two degrees of the record low of the date, 16 set way back in 1917. The last time it was this cold in Birmingham was on January 24, 2005 when we were at 18 that morning.
The great Alabama weather legend, J.B. Elliott, will have a full rundown of morning lows a little later here on the blog.
Today will be sunny, but we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s this afternoon. And, another hard freeze is ahead tonight. By daybreak tomorrow morning , most places will be well below freezing, but there will be a big variation due to the radiational cooling effect. Ridges are colder this morning because the wind is blowing and the low levels are well mixed. Tomorrow morning, ridges will be warmer since the wind will be calm and cold air is allowed to sink into the low spots.
We figure the coldest valleys will be in the 10 to 15 degree range tomorrow morning, but elevations over 1,500 feet will be closer to 25. For now the average number we have in our forecast is 19, but your number will vary.
WARMER WEEKEND: The air begins to modify over the weekend, with highs in the low to mid 50s tomorrow, and upper 50s on Sunday. No rain over the weekend although some scattered clouds will show up on Sunday as moisture begins to return.
NEXT WEEK: Still looks like two rounds of rain. The first will come Tuesday night into Wednesday. We note the GFS is showing a wedge setup for Tuesday, which means temperatures might be cooler than we have in our ongoing forecast over on the seven day page. We don’t expect any severe weather with this feature, and rainfall amounts of around one-half inch look likely.
The second rain event comes at the end of the week, Friday December 15 (one week from today), as a second wave passes through the state.
LONG RANGE: Almost every GFS run is different in the December 18-23 time frame, so no confidence at all in any specific solution. The latest run in the house shows a pretty decent rain event around December 20, and some pretty cold air creeping down into the northern half of the nation by December 23. But, the upper air winds are not configured to bring it down in full force into Alabama (like the current setup!).
Busy day ahead… I will be speaking at Collins-Riverside Middle School in Tuscaloosa this morning, and then I will head south to Linden for their Christmas parade this evening. I should have plenty of time between those events to get the afternoon products out on time. STAY WARM TODAY!
