Dr. William Gray and his team at the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University have issued their long range forecasts for the 2007 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. It is interesting to note that Dr. Gray included a statement in the forecast document that indicates that he has turned primary authorship of the forecast to his long time colleague Philip Klotzbach.
The researchers forecast 14 named storms, against a 50 year average of 9.6 storms. The long term average of days with named storms occurring is 49.1. Klotzbach and Gray are forecasting 70 days. They are calling for seven hurricanes, compared to 5.9 on average and 35 hurricane days, compared with 24.5 on average.
The team predicts that there will be 3 intense hurricanes (category three or higher), just above the average of 2.3. Expect eight days with intense hurricanes, above the long term average of 5.
The accumulate cyclone energy index (ACE), a measurement of the expended energy from tropical cyclones over a season. It is calculated by summing the squares of the maximum sustained wind speeds at six hour intervals. In 2007, Klotzbach and Gray are forecasting an ACE of 130, compared to the long term seasonal average of 96.1. This is forty percent higher than the average.
The experts indicate that there is a 64% chance that a major hurricane (category 3-4-5) will hit the united States (52% climatological average). The threat to Peninsula Florida is 40% against a long term average of 31% from the last century. For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas is 40% against a long term average of 30%. They indicate there is an above average landfall risk in the Caribbean.
The team believes that the current El Nino conditions over the Pacific will relax before the peak period of next hurricane.
