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As forecast, it is not so cold this morning with early morning values running about 8 to 10 degrees warmer than those reported yesterday morning. But it is still nippy with readings in the mid and upper 20s according to reports from the airport hourly sites. My weather station showed a low this morning of 25 compared to 17 yesterday. And it looks like the warming trend will continue as we head back to seasonal values or slightly above.
The latest GFS model run, the 06Z run, is still on track with a series of short waves moving across the Central US. One of those is moving across today generating a field of clouds across a large portion of the Southeast US. We’ll see brief ridging Monday before the next trough over the Rockies approaches on Tuesday. That trough will bring a cold front through Alabama late Tuesday and early Wednesday and with it a good shot at some rain. It would appear that the best rain chances will come late Tuesday and early Wednesday. By noon time Wednesday, the rain should be exiting the eastern part of the state. While moisture is returning, current QPF values are down a bit. It looks like rainfall amounts could be around a half inch or so with perhaps some isolated locations getting up to an inch.
A second trough will come quickly on the heels of the first trough, but without much moisture to work with, the second system will be essentially dry, just a few clouds. And this system will be of Pacific origins so it won’t get nearly as cold as the last system. In fact, we are likely to remain above seasonal values for next weekend so a really nice weekend is shaping up.
Another surface cold front late Monday or Tuesday will bring increased rain chances for Central Alabama, but we’re getting pretty far out.
And, speaking of far out, the long range model guidance looks more realistic today. I actually saved a map from yesterday to show in the video the differences around the 20th of December – and those differences are substantial. And if the long range model data is correct, we could see some rain on Christmas eve but Christmas should be dry with slightly cooler temperatures – but nothing especially cold.
Want to talk about far out? I was reading an article yesterday in the Washington Post about the weather on Jupiter. Talk about a tough environment. Steady wind at 200 to 300 mph and swirling storms 7,000 miles across with wind to 550 mph. Wow, makes me appreciate the weather we have right here.
That will do it for me today. Headed to the beach for several days. James Spann will be back with you tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. Have a great week and God bless.
-Brian-
