Analyzing surface data late this afternoon, it is easy to find our Gulf low. It is located just south of the Louisiana coast, about 160 miles south of New Iberia.
It is quite windy over parts of the northern Gulf Coast. Winds are gusting to 30 mph at times at places like Lakefront Airport in New Orleans. Wind will pick up a bit during the night for us, averaging from 8-16 mph later out of the northeast with some occasionally higher gusts.
Across Alabama, skies are now mostly cloudy. Temperatures are in the 50s at all locations, ranging from 50F at Muscle Shoals to 57F at Anniston.
Radar shows light to moderate rain over a large part of North and Central Alabama, but a lot of it is still not reaching the ground. Light rain was reported at 5 p.m. at Tuscaloosa, the Shelby County Airport, Montgomery and Evergreen. Heavy rain was reported at Mobile. As the precipitation continues to moisten up the airmass near the surface this evening, more of the rain will begin reaching the ground.
The surface low will move northeast tonight, and the rain will become widespread and heavier. Amounts will range from 0.75 inches over West Alabama to around an inch over the northern and eastern sections of the state.
The NWS Mobile has issued a Flood Watch for parts of SW Alabama tonight. Those areas received heavy rain Thursday night, but I think the chance for flooding is limited.
A note for Santa from the forecaster at the NWS Birmingham…REMEMBER SANTA — IF YOU AND THE REINDEER COME TO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH…TURN AROUND DONT DROWN /OR JUST FLY OVER IT…I GUESS/. Another note to Santa…the aviation forecaster is predicting low level wind shear after 03Z…that’s 9 p.m. Santa…so keep the power up on those roof top landings.
There could be some thunder mixed in with the rain tonight, even over Central and North Alabama, but nothing exciting. There is a chance for some strong storms along the immediate coast as the warm front moves onshore tonight.
There will be a break in the rainfall tomorrow as the low slides to our southeast, but some wraparound moisture will create the opportunity for some light precipitation tomorrow night. For now it looks like the rain could mix with or changeover to light snow for a brief period Monday night over northern sections of the area, mainly from Birmingham north, but no problem accumulations are expected.
Our weather improves by Tuesday with the next big rainmaker coming late in the week into the weekend.
