The Wednesday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
I will post the new WeatherBrains show in a few minutes… we had a blast last night with some new people and some very interesting topics….
THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: One more dry day today for Alabama… lots of sunshine through scattered high clouds with a nice daytime warmup. Most spots should reach the low 60s this afternoon. To the west, rain will break out across the Texas coastal plain and the western Gulf of Mexico, and that rain is moving in our direction.
ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING: Rain will spread into the state tomorrow, becoming widespread by late afternoon and tomorrow night. Another “good” kind of rain in that we don’t expect any flooding problems or severe weather problems around here. There would be a few strong to severe storms along the immediate Gulf coast, but even down there the risk seems to be marginal.
Rainfall amounts of one to two inches are likely for the northern half of the state; the latest QPF map you see on today’s video looks very good to us (the one from yesterday afternoon was a little too aggressive in our opinion). The rain will end from west to east during the midday hours Friday.
THE WEEKEND: I still think most of the day Saturday will be dry, but I sure cannot promise a totally dry day. The 06Z GFS hints at a nice sliver of moisture lingering over Alabama, so the mention of a shower or two is probably needed, like J.B. had on his afternoon forecast package yesterday. Rain will increase again on Sunday as the next system from the FCSM (Four Corners Storm Machine) rolls into the Deep South. Models are all over the road on the timing of this system, but for now it looks like rain will fall Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and possibly into Monday morning. Cooler and drier air moves in here late Monday and Tuesday.
LONG RANGE: I think it will be fun to watch developments in the January 10-31 time frame as very cold air builds over the northern part of the continent. Yep, no sign of the NAO flipping to negative, which means if the cold air reaches Alabama it will be very shallow. The depth of the cold air will determine what kind of precipitation falls when the FCSM cranks one out. But, will the FCSM still be active if the cold air arrives? And, will the cold air seep into the Deep South at all? Questions that remain to be answered… all we can do is stay tuned.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… feeling MUCH better today!
