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Our mild weather continues, at least for one more day. But this mild weather is setting the stage for the possiblity of severe storms. A low pressure surface low that was in southwest Louisiana was moving quickly north-northeastward and will drag a cold front through Central Alabama this afternoon. Very unstable air with dew points in the mid 60s was situated along the Gulf Coast. This air could get as far north as the Birmingham area and the I-20 corridor by early afternoon. This along with a very strong jet at 200 millibars and a favorable position for Central Alabama under the right rear quadrant of the jet could result in strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threat area is expected to be from the Birmingham area southward. So be sure to stay with ABC 3340 for the latest weather information through the day today.
Shear profiles suggest that we could see strongly rotating storms. The biggest threat will come with discrete supercells that develop in the warm sector. Due to weak lapse rates aloft, these could well be low topped storms. Another threat will come along and just ahead of the cold front with wind damage a good possibility seeing the strength of the low level wind flow. This is not absolutely a sure bet and depends on many factors, but one we will need to keep a close eye on as the day goes on.
The front blasts through here late this afternoon bringing an end to the mild weather. This is not an especially cold air mass, but given the very mild weather we’ve been experiencing, it will seem really cold. By Tuesday and Wednesday morning, temperatures will bottom out in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Tuesday our temperatures will be mainly in the 40s even with good sunshine.
But the Gulf opens up beginning Thursday so temperatures will recover to above seasonal values once again by the end of the upcoming week. And with moisture increasing on the strong southerly flow, we can expect to see the possibility of showers Friday and Saturday, maybe even beginning as early as Thursday.
Trolling out into the longer range, the GFS keeps a steady string of Four Corners Storm Machines coming at us. So no signs of a let up in the active pattern of storms every three to four days. There is also no sign of any extreme cold as the AO and NAO outlooks remain weakly positive.
Thanks for tuning in to the Weather Xtreme Video. I’ll have the weather today on ABC 3340 at 5 and 10 pm so I hope you can join us then. James Spann will be back with the next Weather Xtreme Video around 7 am Monday. Have a great Sunday but stay alert to weather information for the latest on this developing weather situation.
-Brian-
