The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in their latest day 1 outlook shown below has expanded the outlook area. And I noticed that it is signed by my good friend and colleague, Dan McCarthy who is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the SPC. Makes me feel good to know Dan is at the helm.
Conditions remain marginal but the potential is very high. Satellite imagery showing a deck of clouds across the northern half of Alabama. However, there were breaks in the clouds across Southeast Mississippi and Southwest Alabama. These breaks will allow some heating and perhaps increase the instability. The cold front is approaching the AL-MS state line and radar shows a line of storms but nothing severe so far. I think there is a potential for an increase in intensity this afternoon ahead of the segment of the line running roughly from Tuscaloosa to Hattiesburg.
CAPE values have been on the rise and helicity values are running from 250 to 400 from southwestern Alabama to northeastern Alabama. Lapse rates are still marginal, so this still remains a weather situation to watch. It still appears that the most likely area for severe thunderstorms will be south of Birmingham and the I-20 corridor.
-Brian-
