An intensifying line of showers and storms is pushing eastward across West and Northwest Alabama this morning. It extends from Lamar and Marion Counties northeastward across southeastern Franklin County into Lawrence and Limestone Counties.
Showers and thunderstorms are along and just east of I-65 from Greenville up to east of Montgomery and then into Clay, Randolph and Chambers Counties.
Other lines of showers are forming between these two areas.
Dewpoints have jumped rapidly across West Central Alabama on a surge of moisture on a strong low level jet out of the Gulf of Mexico. The dewpoint at Tuscaloosa has jumped to 66F and is now 63F at Birmingham. This has led to a large area of increasingly unstable air south of Tuscaloosa, where CAPE values have now reached 500 j/kg. Lifted indices have gone slightly negative in this area.
A few discrete thunderstorms could still form ahead of the main squall line, and those will have the opportunity to rotate with strong shear in place.
The main threat seems to be shifting to the intensifying squall line over West Alabama. The tops of the individual convective cells in the line are still low…less than 15,000 feet generally. Lapse rates are just not very strong and instability is limited. But the storms along the line will still have the opportunity to become severe with the strong shear and could produce damaging winds
No discussion of any pending watches at this time.
The SPC has shifted the Slight Risk area a little to the southeast, to an area southeast of Eutaw to Columbiana to Wedowee. They have also downplayed the threat of tornadoes, although we can’t rule an isolated one out with the line.
Here is the latest SPC Day One outlook…
The cold front is approaching the western border of Alabama now and will continue eastward through the day. We can expect cooler weather overnight with a brisk west and northwest wind. Readings by morning will be in the upper 30s. Skies will clear during the day on Monday.
