The Wednesday afternoon ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
I have several viewer pictures I will post here in a bit…
We will warm to near 60 degrees tomorrow, and into the mid 60s on Friday as winds veer around to the south. We will continue to mention and increase in clouds and some risk of isolated showers on Friday, but most places will remain dry.
THE WEEKEND: While a heavy rain event unfolds to the northwest of Alabama, in the broad zone from Dallas to Pittsburgh, we will be mostly dry and very mild on Saturday and Sunday with mixed sun and clouds. The guidance continues to trend warmer; the GFS is now showing a high around 70 on both days over the weekend. Not bad for a January weekend. Any showers both days should be very isolated.
The main band of rain and storms ahead of a push of very cold air will finally move in here late Sunday night into Monday. Right now looks like the best chance of rain and storms will come from about midnight Sunday night through 12:00 Noon Monday. SPC maintains some risk of severe storms within that band; looks like the last two systems with high shear but low instability values.
A COLD CHANGE: Much colder air rolls in here after the rain Monday afternoon and Monday night, and at this point it sure looks like we will not make it out of the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the 12Z run of the GFS remains pretty dry, lets don’t overlook the possibility of some overrunning in this time frame, with potential for clouds and some light rain or freezing rain. And, despite the dry GFS, there remains some risk of a storm late next week that might bring heavier precipitation to the Deep South. Live by the models, die by them as well; we try not to focus on run to run changes seven days in advance; we are just looking for trends.
The screaming message is that our weather looks harshly cold for the latter half of January, and possibly beyond that into February. The winter season is young, and the vast amount of brutally cold air up north is a bit concerning. All of us need to prepare for lots of cold weather ahead with higher energy costs. And, of course, along the way I would imagine some kind of snow or ice threat a time or two.
I have a busy day coming up tomorrow; I will be speaking in Clanton at midday, and then I head for Jackson, Mississippi where I will be speaking to the local NWA/AMS chapter tomorrow evening. J.B. Elliott will be around for the ride, so our posts will come from the road, and Bill Murray and Brian Peters will provide backup support. I will come right back and be back in the saddle early Friday morning. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
