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This is definitely one of those times when you wonder why you chose weather as a profession. No matter what is happening or what the computer models say or what your experience suggests, you’ve got to make a forecast. That means reconciling all of these elements and arriving at what you think is going to happen. But you need to know right now that my confidence in any of the forecasts out there is not high. Experience tells me that shallow cold air systems such as the one we are dealing with are tricky and even the newest and best computer models simply do not handle them well. But the computer models also have very complex equations to describe what is going to happen, and they are the tools that we rely on. So, this situation definitely qualifies for a “stay tuned” disclaimer.
For now, the word is mild – downright spring-like. In fact, Central Alabama will be basking in near record warmth for today and Sunday. I’m confident about this. Near record but I really doubt that we’ll see records fall. Record high for the Birmingham airport for today is 77 and Sunday is 78, both set in 1932. I’m confident that we’ll see 70-degree readings but not that warm. And overnight lows Sunday will only be in the 50s – where our daily highs ought to be if this were a typical January.
For the Central US, this is going to be a long weekend with lots of ice and snow for those folks to contend with. I’ve got images in the video of the soundings from Fort Worth and Norman showing the thin layer of very cold air. This layer roughly 4,000 feet thick is causing a big problem with up to an inch of ice reported in Oklahoma. Normally, we look to the west for what our weather will be but there are some issues to deal with. Because the layer of cold air is thin, it could modify a good deal before it gets here especially since the weather pattern is changing slowly. And then there is the issue of whether or not the cold air will really get here. The GFS is maintaining a strong high over the Gulf which will make it difficult for the cold air to get here. And then if the cold air gets here, will there be enough moisture for some sort of wintery precipitation.
Monday changes begin. The weather system to our west is going to stay there until late Sunday and then begin coming out. But as it does it is held north of Alabama by that strong ridge over the Gulf moving across the northern part of the US. Rain will get in here on Monday so Monday will be a wet day with temperatures held back by clouds and rain.
Colder air arrives on Tuesday, but the GFS is suggesting that the really cold air won’t make it into Central Alabama. It’s going to feel much colder because we’ve been so mild. Trying to judge the strength of the low level cold air with the 850 millibar temperature shows the zero degree isotherm only reaching the Tennessee Valley. This is a big change from earlier model runs and helps to reduce confidence in the model solution.
By Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level pattern goes back to a ridge while a new closed low develops over the Southwest US. This is another in a string of storm systems near the Four Corners area like we’ve seen and like we’ll see into the foreseeable future. As the surface high moves east of us on Friday, southeast flow along with Gulf moisture return again bringing clouds and some chance of rain by next weekend. Temperatures moderate as we get to the weekend.
Too much on the plate in the near term to even think about voodoo land. I will say, though, that the GFS maintains an active pattern well into the future. This will keep meteorologists busy with lots of coffee and nail biting to go along with the eventual weather.
And don’t forget that our Storm Alert Tour for 2007 begins on February 1st. Our first stop is Tuscaloosa at Shelton State Community College, a great facility. This years event is shaping up to be another great opportunity for learning more about the weather. I hope to see you all there.
In the meantime, enjoy the mild weather while you can. I’ll have the weather this evening on ABC 3340 and hope you can join us for news, weather, and sports at 6 and 10 pm. Have a great weekend and God bless.
-Brian-
