I know Brian will have a full post on here later… be sure and read that for a full discussion…
Lots of e-mail from people yesterday about “The Weather Channel” forecasting highs in the 60s all week. Needless to say, if that is indeed the case I think that borders on insanity. I guess they have automated forecasts from GFS MOS products, which are horrible in this kind of situation. GFS MOS products have busted by more that 25 degrees in some cases over Texas and Oklahoma in recent days. It doesn’t understand shallow cold air. And, this cold air is VERY shallow. Look at the soundings to the west. There is no real change to my thinking since last week.
The WRF/NAM MOS is beginning to get it now; it has a high in Birmingham of 41 for Tuesday… I still say we hold in the 30s all day. And, I still believe there might some risk of freezing rain over some part of North Alabama during the mid-week period. But, the big story is the change to cold weather.
If we have a high in the 60s on Tuesday, I will suck down a whole bottle of mayonnaise, something I have disliked since I was a young child. We will tape it and put it on the blog. For all the people who have sent in “hate mail” siding with “The Weather Channel’, if we are right and it turns sharply colder on Tuesday, you have to promise to quit sending nasty e-mail messages for a whole year. How is that for a deal?
Watch for Brian’s update shortly; I will have my next full discussion and video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. Have to run off to church to deal with 500 children!
