The Tuesday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
The long advertised change to cold weather is here. As I write this at 5:00 a.m…. our SKYCAM location up at Hamilton in Northwest Alabama is below freezing at 30 degrees with a wind chill index of 19. The rest of the region is in the 30s, and only East Alabama remains in the low 40s. But, even there, they will drop into the 30s within the next couple of hours. This will be a raw day, with clouds, a biting north wind, and temperatures holding in the 30s. Wind chill values will be below freezing much of the day. Welcome back to winter.
The rain is over where temperatures are below freezing; and the rain over Central Alabama will be ending this morning. Guess there could be a few spots of freezing drizzle during the next hour or so over the northwest part of the state, but ice is not a big issue.
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM: This southern stream is clearly seen on water vapor images this morning; watch the video and you can see it. This will make for a very difficult forecast in coming days; already this morning we see the need for several adjustments to the forecast.
Looks like we will not be clearing out tonight; the clouds will probably hang tough which means temperatures will not be quite as cold. Yep, we will be below freezing, but instead of lows in the mid 20s, readings might be in the 27 to 30 degree range early tomorrow. And, looks like tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some risk of light rain for the southern half of the state. No way the models can resolve little ripples moving through that southern stream. There is little upper air data available over Mexico, meaning little help for our computer models.
LATER IN THE WEEK: For the moment we have a chance of some scattered light rain in our forecast for Thursday; looks like we need to move that back to late Thursday night and Friday with our next cold front coming down from the north. Temperatures will moderate a bit and no ice issues are expected with that rain at the end of the week.
WEEKEND PEEK: Saturday looks like a dry but chilly day as a fresh shot of cooler air arrives. But, another system in the southern stream will bring clouds back on Sunday, and the GFS is bringing rain back in here late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, and we will make that adjustment in the forecast.
NEXT WEEK: A fresh shot of cold air moves in here on Monday, but the main upper trough axis is still west of the state. Keep in mind there is low confidence in any specific solution out here since the GFS and the ECMWF aren’t exactly on the same page. But, the GFS solution does bring much colder air in here Tuesday of next week, and then on Wednesday (January 24) a robust storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico. Snow lovers, this is your first opportunity for some action here. The GFS moves that storm northeast, and strengthens just off the Atlantic coast. This is a classic snow pattern for parts of the Deep South, but I have absolutely no confidence that is correct. It sure is possible; we will just have to wait and watch.
The pattern continues to favor colder than normal temperatures into February, and again I will be really surprised if we get through the next five weeks without one or two good winter storm threats. This might be a winter to remember for someone around here. Maybe Nashville, Atlanta, Jackson, Birmingham? We will see.
The schedule really kicks up in full gear for us in coming weeks; we are getting ready for the Storm Alert 2007 tour which begins February 1 in Tuscaloosa… I will be doing a story on the 30th anniversary of the Smithfield tornado which moved through North Birmingham on April 4, 1977 killing over 20 people. And, today I will be headed east to speak to students at Weaver Elementary in Calhoun County. I will be back in the office by early afternoon and will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30! Stay warm today….
